Senior Tories are predicting they will lose the Blackpool South by-election as counting gets under way.
Sources told Sky News’ political correspondent Tamara Cohen they did “not expect to hold” the seat – which they won with a 3,690 majority in 2019.
And they said the “stars could not be more aligned against us” following scandals hitting local MPs.
Follow live: Tories braced for potentially difficult night in local elections
The by-election was called after the former Conservative MP Scott Benton was caught in a sting by the Times newspaper, suggesting he was willing to break lobbying rules for money.
Former Tory MP Scott Benton. Pic: PA
As a result, he was suspended from the Commons for 35 days, meaning he was subject to a recall petition in his constituency.
But instead of facing removal from his seat, Mr Benton resigned from parliament, triggering a vote for a new MP.
In an added painful twist for the Tories, the candidate standing to replace him, David Jones, was revealed as the chairman of the Fylde Conservatives – the area represented by the latest scandal hit MP Mark Menzies.
Mr Menzies hit the headlines after claims he misused campaign funds – including by calling a member of the local association to say he was locked in a flat by “bad people” and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”.
Mr Jones denied he knew anything about the incident – which was allegedly reported to the Conservative Party three months ago – until it was revealed in the media.
The by-election comes at the same time as a range of local council, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner votes across both England and Wales.
Tory sources told Tamara Cohen they were expecting to lose upwards of 500 seats, which would be a big blow to the party ahead of a general election.
But Labour sources claimed the number would be far fewer – despite the party bounding ahead of the Conservatives in national polling.
Follow our live coverage of the election results from midnight – find the full details here.