A cabinet minister has told Sky News they believe Boris Johnson could secure the 100 nominations from Conservative MPs he needs to stand in the second Tory leadership race in three months.
The contest got under way on Thursday after the extraordinary resignation of Liz Truss, who was forced from office 44 days into her tenure after a seismic few weeks in Westminster in which her tax-slashing mini-budget crashed and burnt.
All eyes are now on who could replace her – with speculation mounting that Mr Johnson could launch a comeback to frontline politics, six weeks after he was officially ousted from the top job.
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It is believed Mr Johnson is on holiday in the Dominican Republic, but reports suggest his return to the UK is imminent.
Will Walden, former press secretary to Mr Johnson, told Sky News: “I’ve spoken to someone that’s spoken to him and he’s on the way back. And clearly he’s taking soundings.”
Party rules for the leadership contest mean hopefuls need the backing of at least 100 Tory MPs by Monday afternoon to stay in the race.
This means the maximum number of people able to stand is three. If three candidates get 100 backers, there will be a vote by MPs, with the winning two put forward to the party membership.
If members vote on the top two contenders, the new leader will be chosen by Friday 28 October.
Should Tory MPs coalesce around one candidate, however, the contest will be over on Monday.
Asked about Mr Johnson’s chances at a second run for office, a cabinet minister told Beth Rigby, Sky News’ political editor: “I’d expect him to get to 100.
“Even people who resigned from his government were on the terrace yesterday telling colleagues they would now back him and members definitely will.”
A friend of Mr Johnson has also told Sky News that it is “likely” he will stand.
‘Bring back Boris’
On Thursday night, momentum appeared to be swinging behind Mr Johnson amid reports he will throw his hat into the ring.
Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary and a staunch Johnson ally, told Sky News she is confident he will meet the threshold of 100 MPs.
“He is a known winner and that is certainly who I’m putting my name against because I want us to win the general election. Having a winner in place is what the party needs to survive,” Ms Dorries said.
Although multiple Tory MPs have expressed their support for a Johnson comeback, he remains a divisive figure.
Crispin Blunt, who had called for Ms Truss to resign, said Mr Johnson is “not the character” to lead the Conservative Party at this time – but said he could return in the future.
Mr Blunt, who is standing down at the next election, said that while Mr Johnson is talented, he has “one or two” weaknesses that make him unsuitable for the current circumstances.
Instead, Mr Blunt says he is backing Rishi Sunak to be the next prime minister.
Tory MPs threaten to leave party if Johnson returns
Senior backbencher Sir Roger Gale tweeted to remind people that the former prime minister, who resigned in a mire of sleaze, was still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for potentially misleading the House over partygate.
If found guilty, Mr Johnson could face recall proceedings that would leave him battling for his seat in the Commons if he receives a suspension of 10 days or more.
Sir Roger told Times Radio that, if Mr Johnson is voted back in as prime minister, he would give up the Conservative Party whip and stand as an independent.
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The final straw for Mr Johnson was questions about his judgment over Chris Pincher, the Tory whip who was the centre of drunken groping allegations.
That came on top of his attempts to change the rules to prevent the suspension of the Conservative MP Owen Paterson after he broke lobbying rules.
Mr Johnson was forced to announce his resignation on 7 July, just over 100 days ago, as Cabinet allies turned on him with a series of resignations.
Who are the other runners and riders?
Rishi Sunak, runner-up to Ms Truss in the previous Conservative leadership campaign, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt are considered the frontrunners for the keys to Number 10 alongside Mr Johnson – if they choose to stand.
Mr Sunak, the former chancellor and Tory leadership finalist, has signalled he is “very, very up for the job”, according to Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates.
Former cabinet ministers Dominic Raab and Robert Jenrick are among those who have already pledged their support to Mr Sunak.
While Ms Mordaunt has also made it “clear in her public appearances that she’s up for the job” and has been backed by former cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom and others.
New chancellor Jeremy Hunt has ruled himself out of the running.
Suella Braverman, who resigned as home secretary on Wednesday, was highly critical of Ms Truss when she stepped down – an indication, her allies believe, of her intention to run.
Others who could launch a bid include Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, and former women and equalities minister Kemi Badenoch.
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Opposition parties say that, whoever is handed the keys to Downing Street, a general election must be called immediately.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the Conservative Party has “shown it no longer has a mandate to govern”, adding that British people “deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos”.