After ranking the top 100 prospects heading into the 2022 MLB season, it’s time to turn our attention to each team’s farm system as a whole.
I’ve always found it both overwhelming and too subjective to line up 30 lists of players and say this list is better than that one with any certainty, since the process of ranking them is already pretty subjective and over 1,000 players/data points are too many for one brain to effectively consider.
Enter science! These rankings of all 30 organizations were done, for the most part, the same way as last year’s version. In short, while at FanGraphs, research by Craig Edwards (who now works for the MLB Players Association) revealed empirical surplus dollar values for each future value tier of prospect, so we can now make an objective ranking of farm systems derived from my individual team lists, which have been completed and will be published soon.
The part I’ve added this year is the number of players better than a 40 FV along with total players ranked who I believe have trade value. The idea is that a 40 FV is a tier of player every team has a number of, so in any trade they are seen as common. You can’t offer five of that tier of player and get a good big leaguer, but once you go above that tier you probably can accomplish that. So, I’ve found that the number of players above that 40 FV cutoff is a good measure of quality depth of a system, or the number of players almost every team would want in a deal. The list of 40 FV players differs depending on which team you’re talking to, but above that tier the takes tend to be more similar and the trade value more universal. If you want to be even more specific, players in the top half of the top 100 are almost never traded these days, so “tradable players” would be this “above 40 FV” number, minus the players in the top 50 of the overall list.
One benefit of this approach is that you can use your own judgment to disagree with a ranking if, say, a team has $500,000 more talent but the lower-ranked team has talent of the sort you prefer. This gives you the tools to see exactly how close every team is and a more granular view of what their players are like, according to the other 29 teams.
(55 players ranked, 16 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 8th, $256 million
Top-100 prospects: 6
I mention in the Pirates blurb below that I’m conflicted about the concept of the modern teardown rebuild. As a type-A, finance-majoring baseball fan, I know it’s the most effective and efficient way to turn a not-very-good team into a potential force. As a fan, I also know it’s infuriating to watch it happen in slow motion. As an analyst, I try to distance myself from this conflict because I’m here to comment on how well teams execute this strategy and only occasionally point out that the rules that make it viable are problematic. The front office is playing the hand it is dealt and the Orioles have played it well, as long as you aren’t judging the current big league team as part of this. Ryan Mountcastle is the only meaningful graduate from last year’s list and at this time last year I said they should land in the top five of this year’s list given how everything was lining up.
The team had a solid 2021 draft headlined once again by a bunch of position players who were solid values. My pick to click in the system (Grayson Rodriguez) took off and is now the best pitching prospect in the minors. The upside-ish prep bats from recent drafts saw big gains, with Coby Mayo and Gunnar Henderson taking a step forward. Mayo and Jordan Westburg are picking up the slack due to top 2020 pick Heston Kjerstad being kept out of action. Two potential starters behind Rodriguez and D.L. Hall have emerged in Kyle Bradish and Drew Rom. Some second-tier position players have a chance to turn into everyday players: Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Joseph Ortiz, Hudson Haskin. The hitter and pitcher development plans appear to be working, and GM Mike Elias appears to have taken what worked from the Astros while leaving behind the stuff nobody wanted.
2. Tampa Bay Rays ($313.5 million)
(58 players ranked, 20 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 1st, $496 million
Top-100 prospects: 6
Ah yes, death, taxes and the Rays with a top-tier farm system. They graduated the best prospect in recent memory, worth over $100 million in my method, along with Randy Arozarena, Luis Patino, Shane McClanahan and Taylor Walls while trading Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to Minnesota (Nelson Cruz), and half of the Blake Snell trade had a dip in value (Blake Hunt was unprotected for the Rule 5 draft, Cole Wilcox had Tommy John surgery). So that’s the bad, but the Rays just kept humming along: They turned Shane Baz into the second-best pitching prospect in the sport, they created an Australian Brandon Lowe (Curtis Mead), another pitcher came out of nowhere (Taj Bradley), two more position players came out of nowhere (Jonathan Aranda and Rene Pinto), they traded from excess to get another underrated hitting prospect (Austin Shenton), the other top-tier prospects held serve, they had a solid draft (Cooper Kinney and Carson Williams as headliners), and they unearthed another really good shortstop I hadn’t heard of until this winter (Willy Vasquez). If, for some reason, you find yourself betting against the Rays doing this again, listen to me: stop.
(63 players ranked, 21 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 4th, $290 million
Top-100 prospects: 6
The Pirates are doing a version of the modern teardown, bottoming out on payroll, trading all the good veterans, loading up on young players and trying to put together a wave or two of talent that could make the playoffs within the franchise’s payroll parameters. They’re doing a solid job of executing that plan on all fronts, with a very strong draft class, among the better recent international classes and some solid unexpected gains on the development front.
As much as this approach isn’t very fan-friendly at the big league level, the big league fans will get Ke’Bryan Hayes, prospect supernova Oneil Cruz and the underrated Bryan Reynolds in the lineup. Roansy Contreras will join the big league rotation at some point in 2022, but 2023 is a more reasonable expectation for the rest of this top tier of talent to be big league ready.
(36 players ranked, 17 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 2nd, $319 million
Top-100 prospects: 7
This time last year, I pointed out that the Marlins had so many prospect types in the upper minors and on their 40-man roster that there just wasn’t enough meaningful playing time for all of them to improve. They’ve graduated Trevor Rogers, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez from that group to the big league team, some have regressed to being more role-player types, and they’ve traded others for big league upgrades. They still have three starting pitchers knocking on the door of the big leagues who are in the top 100, along with two outfielders also that close and another starting pitcher who would be too if not for Tommy John surgery. The lower minors upside types (shortstop Kahlil Watson, right-hander Eury Perez and second baseman Ian Lewis) are early enough in their careers that they have nearly spotless resumes. The weakness here may be the depth after the first 15-17 players, but many GMs would love a top 15-17 like this.
(48 players ranked, 17 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 10th, $244 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
It’s been a tough few years for the Diamondbacks, including losing the tiebreaker for the first overall pick in this summer’s draft. The strength of their farm system is real, though, and in the next year they may get two new everyday-quality center fielders, one shortstop and three or more solid starting pitchers. Daulton Varsho has already graduated, and the D-backs also took my top prospect in the draft with the sixth overall pick. There’s lots of talent and much of it is in the upper levels, but the D-backs will need all of it to match up with the Dodgers, Padres and Giants.
(38 players ranked, 11 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 6th, $275 million
Top-100 prospects: 5
The Mariners have turned the corner on their mini-rebuild, just missing the playoffs and graduating Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, Taylor Trammell and Cal Raleigh to the big league team. This next wave of talent may be even better, with the third overall prospect in the sport, right fielder Julio Rodriguez, likely the best of the bunch. I like the mix of players the Mariners are targeting in the draft, and they seem to find a real position player prospect or two in every signing class, which is harder than it sounds. The rest of the pitching they need to add is probably in the system now and, depending on how quickly Rodriguez is ready, the hitter they need may be there later this year. It might be time for M’s fans to get (reasonably) excited.
(48 players ranked, 18 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 15th, $199 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Yankees made a big move this year as a number of players took significant steps forward, attributable to some combination of scouting and development. The sixth overall prospect in baseball, shortstop Anthony Volpe, had one of the most shocking breakout seasons in recent memory, while shortstop Oswald Peraza just keeps getting better, center fielder Everson Pereira had the breakout season scouts had been expecting and left-hander Ken Waldichuk went from a funky mid-major lefty to a threat to be in the big league rotation. The international class was headlined by the top player (shortstop Roderick Arias), the draft crop was once again above average and a couple of more anonymous types turned into prospects in the upper minors. There’s plenty here for Brian Cashman to make about five more Joey Gallo-type trades, but I think he’d rather hold off and see how they turn out.
(51 players ranked, 19 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 16th, $193 million
Top-100 prospects: 5
Like most of the teams in the Rays’ front-office tree, the Dodgers always have a solid-to-good farm system and are constantly turning what many thought were marginal players into real prospects. Their international program is undoubtedly top-notch, producing half of their top dozen prospects, and their domestic scouting group is almost annoying at how often it takes players I didn’t like much and proves me wrong. It’s a real And1 Mixtape-level aggression in their scouting staff, which seems intent on embarrassing me. Along those lines, I’m fascinated to see what they do with their most recent first-round pick, Maddux Bruns, who had maybe the best raw stuff and worst command of the prep pitching class.
(56 players ranked, 20 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 9th, $246 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The discipline with which the Guardians do business can be a bit boring: always in and around the playoff race, always with a solid young core, always with a solid farm system, perpetually with a below-average payroll, in some way losing star players when they get expensive, making trades I don’t always love but usually getting solid results. They stick to their types in the draft and internationally, and do well, and are always in asset accumulation mode. To shift tone a bit, they have three top-100 prospects I find really exciting to watch: Daniel Espino, Brayan Rocchio and George Valera.
(57 players ranked, 18 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 20th, $167 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
I wrote last year that perhaps the Rangers were hurt the most by the pandemic because of so many upside prospects who didn’t get reps, and that within a year or two Texas could have one of the top 10 farm systems. Well, here the Rangers are, just one year later, and the big league team has turned a corner of sorts, as $500 million can go a long way to upgrading your infield. There’s still more payroll upside in the coming years and there may be three homegrown solid rotation pieces and four homegrown potential everyday players coming out of this system in the next two years, though I’d say only Jack Leiter has true star potential of that group.
Like the Tigers and Royals, the Rangers are in a tough spot, where they need to find eight to 10 more wins somewhere to be a real contender. But they have the most money, the most current stars and the best system of those three, so I’ll lean toward them solving this problem the quickest.
(40 players ranked, 19 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 12th, $221 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Giants are the trendy new kid on the block joining the Dodgers and Rays as one of the darlings of the industry for how they somehow seem to make every player in their orbit better. We know from the past that there’s real payroll upside here and there are still a handful of holes to address this offseason.
The top of the prospect list is a nice mix of lower-minors upside and near big league ready regulars, so that will make Farhan Zaidi’s next couple of offseason to-do lists a bit simpler with some rookies stepping into key spots every season and a shot for a star to emerge by the time the current steady veterans have moved on.
(45 players ranked, 15 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 17th, $190 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Royals are in a similar spot to the Tigers one spot below, in the same division, coming off of a decent 2021, trying to improve, with some top-100 types about to join the big league team in a division where second place is wide open.
Bobby Witt Jr. could truly be a franchise-changing talent while 2021 revelation M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto could be the Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon/Eric Hosmer of this next phase.
The big league team still has some holes left, the farm isn’t so good that it can fix them all right now and there probably isn’t tons of money left over, so GM Dayton Moore needs to work some magic to make the most of this situation.
(36 players ranked, 12 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 3rd, $310 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Tigers have turned the corner in their rebuild, with an unexpectedly good 2021 season, punctuated by a $140 million deal with Javier Baez in November. Top prospects have graduated to the big leagues in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning and the next wave of potential stars is on the doorstep, led by a pair of top-10 overall draft picks in Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
There’s a very difficult roughly 10 more wins that need to be found and added to the big league roster to truly be a playoff contender. How good GM Al Avila is at that last step will dictate whether this rebuild will be a success, because almost anyone can pick some good players at the top of the draft.
(40 players ranked, 13 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 18th, $171 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Cardinals do it their way — they don’t fall into any of the neat boxes that other scouting and development groups do — with a solid group of potential impact talent from the draft, international signings and trades. The top two players in their system were prep third basemen expected to go higher in the first round who slid for unclear reasons, followed by a mid-to-low-tier international signing, an undervalued-at-the-time young lefty, and so on.
They continued this zig-when-they-zag tendency by taking Michael McGreevy in the first round this year, more beloved by eyeball evaluators than trendy analytical methods. They have to find value when they’re consistently picking in the back of the first round and the Cardinals have their own way of doing that.
(37 players ranked, 10 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 7th, $271 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Padres were perennial threats at the top of this list along with the Rays, particularly when GM A.J. Preller was in prospect collection mode, but he’s clearly in “win now” mode at this point. The second tier of their farm system was decimated in trading for multiple aces and supplementing the big league roster.
That top tier is still strong with four elite prospects and a solid crop from the 2021 draft class. Beyond that it’s a mix of recent international talent that has potential but hasn’t quite broken through yet and likely role-player types. This is an example of what a good farm system is supposed to be used for; the Pads need that ring to make it all worth it.
(55 players ranked, 16 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 21st, $159 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
As expected, the farm system has improved under Chaim Bloom, in large part due to a his first pick (Nick Yorke) paying off hugely, and with his second first-round pick (Marcelo Mayer), the Red Sox were opportunistic in grabbing the best player at the fourth pick in a positively odd top of last summer’s draft.
I like last year’s draft class as a whole, along with the two-player return for Hunter Renfroe (Alex Binelas and David Hamilton) and overall improved depth to the system — even with Garrett Whitlock and Bobby Dalbec graduating to the big league club. There’s still some work to do to hang with the class of the AL in 2022 but Triston Casas should be ready to take over for J.D. Martinez at some point, freeing up more payroll space for next winter.
(41 players ranked, 15 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 5th, $290 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
Minnesota needs to be a sustainable club as it will probably always be running below-average payrolls at the big league level and the Twins have solid top-end, high-minors depth, with their top seven prospects all 50 FV or better and slated to start in Double-A or higher. All seven are flawed in some way — none were in the top half of the top 100 — but being opportunistic in signing amateurs and making trades is key, along with avoiding any big misses in free agency.
The Twins dropped in these rankings because three top-100 prospects graduated last year: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers. After bottoming out in the AL Central last year, better days are ahead here.
(33 players ranked, 9 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 25th, $119 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
While the Mets were having the offseason of their fans’ dreams, spending at the top of the market, forking over $250 million before the lockout, the franchise also has some help coming from the farm system with four top-100 prospects, headlined by the No. 9 prospect overall, catcher Francisco Alvarez.
Given the posture of the big league team moving forward, being able to insert a few rookies at the league minimum and/or have key pieces for trades is key. The issue is that the depth of the system is below average — the average team has 14.3 players over a 40 FV — so the players who actually get traded in significant deals, those outside the top half of the top 100 who are also better than a 40 FV, are in shorter supply than you’d prefer.
(52 players ranked, 19 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 22nd, $156 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
The Cubs seem to be trying the rare big-market rebuild, though they just gave Marcus Stroman $71 million. Chicago appears to have a clear point of view on its trades, targeting upside, often in teenage prospects at the lowest levels of the minors. At the end of the year, only one of the Cubs’ top eight prospects wasn’t a teenager. This means the farm system has lots of potential variance, but with that comes the word fans want to hear — upside! There’s only one top-100 prospect in this system today (and he may graduate by next year). Still, I’d bet — even without looking at any possible additions via trade, draft or international signings — that the Cubs will have an over/under of 2.5 players going from off the list to on it next year.
(42 players ranked, 14 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 19th, $168 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Reds are stuck in the middle right now at the big league level, not quite as good as the Brewers and Cardinals, but clearly ahead of the mostly to completely rebuilding Cubs and Pirates. There are a couple possible quick shot-in-the-arm types at the top of the system in starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who can address the back end of the rotation, but there probably isn’t an impact-level bat ready for the big leagues this season. There are some coming in a year or two, but the challenge for the Reds is to devise a plan to move into that top tier of the division, with a solid farm system to back them but likely without an immediate internal solution.
(37 players ranked, 9 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 11th, $230 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The Jays have handed out nearly $400 million via three long-term deals (George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios) but are still running outside of the league’s top 10 payrolls. They now appear to be in a perennial four-team race for the AL East (until the Orioles’ rebuild begins to bear fruit), buoyed by the cost-controlled salaries of young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah. They have a top-heavy farm, led by two more potential impact players in Gabriel Moreno and Orelvis Martinez, who may soon be added to that list, making their balancing act a bit easier.
(33 players ranked, 10 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 30th, $59 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Nats are a modern example of the big-budget, always-contending team that sees the farm system as a producer of homegrown stars and fodder for trades, with little other utility. Uncharacteristically, they found themselves in last place in an improving NL East last year and traded their two most valuable players to the Dodgers for two top-100 prospects. They had already made one of the more savvy first-round picks in the draft, taking Brady House at 11th overall, right after the Mets made the worst pick of the draft. There’s a bit of a pivot happening in D.C., as the Nats play young players while paying huge money to Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and treading water to figure out how to build the next contending team around generational hitter Juan Soto.
(38 players ranked, 15 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 27th, $107 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The perennial most confusing team in baseball is also currently projected by FanGraphs to be the worst team in MLB this season by a good margin. The amateur talent acquisition has always been solid for Colorado and longtime scouting director Bill Schmidt is now the GM, bringing some hope for that level of coherence to the rest of the organization. Zac Veen, the Rockies’ 2020 first-round pick, has the look of a potential middle-of-the-order star while their second pick in 2020, prep catcher Drew Romo, is another big arrow-up guy and there is a collection of interesting international talents emerging ranked just below those two.
(40 players ranked, 11 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 24th, $138 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The industry was prepared for farm system carnage in Philly when Dave Dombrowski took over, considering how he’s used his farm to build contenders in other cities. He may have turned over a new leaf, with Spencer Howard the only top-tier prospects sent packing via trade in Dombrowski’s first season.
The Phils have dipped into the riskiest part of the draft pool with their last two first-round picks, prep right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter, with solid early returns. Shortstop Bryson Stott should be ready to take over in the big leagues at some point in 2022 and Johan Rojas is the exciting, emerging talent to keep an eye on. With Philadelphia behind the Braves and Mets in 2022 NL East projections, I’m still bracing for farm system carnage here.
(37 players ranked, 16 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 29th, $88 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
Along with Oakland, Milwaukee is a perennial contender on a micro budget because of how well it can execute a scouting and development vision from the top to the bottom of the organization — specifically upper-minors scouting and big league development, two of the less appreciated aspects.
I loved the Brew Crew’s first two picks in last summer’s draft — advanced college bats in Sal Frelick and Tyler Black — and they’ve had solid returns on Joey Wiemer and Garrett Mitchell from that college hitter demographic, along with a ton of prospects from their international program. The dominating major league pitching staff is completely homegrown, but Milwaukee is now at the point that it will need the farm to turn out a few more everyday players, with top prospect Aaron Ashby likely the next.
(36 players ranked, 12 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 28th, $91 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The Astros are doing a solid job of having big league-ready talent available when the big league team needs it, with Jeremy Pena set to take Carlos Correa’s spot in 2022 as a notable example. Abraham Toro (traded to Seattle for Kendall Graveman), Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy (World Series starters) are more examples of turning unheralded talents into real on-field impact — with current prospects Hunter Brown and Korey Lee possibly the next two examples.
Forrest Whitley’s struggles have been a big disappointment and, like many of the teams in this range, it’s difficult to stay on the right half of this list while also keeping the big league team a perennial contender, which to be clear, is the whole point of having a team.
(28 players ranked, 10 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 13th, $221 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The Braves had a lack of lower-minors depth because of international sanctions that have since been lifted and they’ve now signed two classes headlined by seven-figure bonuses, along with having a deal in place for one of the top talents in the 2023 signing class — if they manage to avoid having that dissolved due to a draft.
The big league team, through trades (Alex Jackson, Bryse Wilson, Bryce Ball, Ricky DeVito) and graduations (Ian Anderson), is also borrowing heartily from the system, and the Braves are regularly picking in the back half of the draft. Center fielder Michael Harris is the big find from the new regime’s draft efforts, but it takes masterful execution to have a top-half-of-the-league farm system while also running a perennial contender that’s not spending to the luxury tax threshold.
(32 players ranked, 9 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 26th, $117 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
Oakland has, under the radar, put together a perennially small-payroll contender that is possibly second to only the Rays. Part of being able to pull that off is effective scouting and development with a point of view (the top of the J2 international class, often non-consensus draft talents, excellent upper-minors pro scouting) which helps to find undervalued talent and engineer quick rebuilds.
Industry buzz has the A’s seriously contemplating another power rebuild now and there are a handful of potential impact talents in the system, but this could be a top-10 system by next year if they truly tear it all the way down (dealing Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al.) as some are suspecting.
(41 players ranked, 10 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 23rd, $149 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
The Angels will have a hard time moving much higher in these rankings next year, as top prospect Reid Detmers will graduate and the big league team continues to be in “go for it” mode. There’s some young talent that just graduated in Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, among others, and the depth is all right, but top-end talent is what’s needed here. There’s a new regime under GM Perry Minasian, and in his first draft the Angels took college pitchers with all but one of their picks; it will be instructive to see how this farm system progresses over the next year.
(32 players ranked, 8 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 14th, $204 million
Top-100 prospects: 0
This is just how the cycle of trying to win at the big leagues works if you aren’t the single best-run team in baseball. Top prospects graduate or are traded (Luis Robert, Dane Dunning, Garrett Crochet, Nick Madrigal, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Codi Heuer) in an effort to make the major league team good, and that’s what has happened: mission accomplished.
Now the White Sox pick in the back of the first round as they will be in the thick of the AL race again and the top of this list, bereft of top-100 members, is largely filled with the last two draft/international classes. There are enough young upside types who can move into top-100 consideration, but this farm system will probably be in the bottom third again next year (unless a number of those players make the leap) as it may graduate two of its top five talents.